Local Political Expert – Elections Forecasting, Political Risk
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Job Description
Local Iowa political expert producing point-in-time election forecasts and political-risk analysis. Mercor uses expert data to train and improve frontier AI models.
Responsibilities:
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event’s expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against an independent expert standard
- Contribute expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models
- Complete projects according to changing business needs and performance expectations
Requirements:
- Hands-on experience on specific races in U.S. swing states, including current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
- On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment
- Experience as a university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff member, or state political-risk analyst
- Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in relevant races; retrospective commentary alone is insufficient
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
- Applicants should have worked on a current or recent U.S. race in the state they would cover
- Point-in-time reasoning without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information
- Must be able to work as an independent contractor
- H1-B and STEM OPT candidates are not supported
- Ability to cover Iowa; location requirements include Canada or the USA
Benefits:
- Fully remote role
- Flexible schedule; work can be completed on your own schedule
- Weekly payments via Stripe or Wise based on services rendered
- Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on needs and performance
- Competitive pay
- Collaboration with leading researchers
- Work on projects training and enhancing AI systems
- Reasonable accommodations available upon request
- Up to $1,000 referral payment for each successful referral, subject to referral limits
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