Local Political Expert – Elections Forecasting, Political Risk
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Job Description
Iowa political expert authoring election forecasts and political-risk reports for Mercor. Producing point-in-time judgments to train and evaluate frontier AI models.
Responsibilities:
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against a personal expert standard
- Produce expert-authored forecasting and research data for evaluating and improving AI models on political and financial analysis
Requirements:
- Hands-on experience on specific races in Iowa, including current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
- On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment
- Experience as a university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff member, or state political-risk analyst
- Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in relevant races, not retrospective commentary
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
- Experience with current or recent US races in the state covered
- Ability to reason from a stated evidence cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information
- Must not be an H1-B or STEM OPT candidate
Benefits:
- Fully remote role
- Flexible own schedule
- Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on needs and performance
- Weekly payments via Stripe or Wise based on services rendered
- Competitive pay
- Collaboration with leading researchers
- Opportunity to help shape next-generation AI systems
- Reasonable accommodations upon request
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